Dear Partners and Prospective Investors,
As we bridge last week into current week, the underlying character of the market continues to change. What began as subtle tremors has now transitioned into unmistakable structural movement. The volatility that emerged in late November has not subsided; instead, it has clarified. The market is repricing, reordering, and resetting expectations across asset classes.
Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve announced today a 0.25% rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%. Committee members expressed clear division over the decision, underscoring the uncertain macroeconomic trajectory. Forward guidance was notably restrained: while the Fed acknowledged disinflation progress, it signaled a higher bar for additional cuts extending into 2026. This decision — and the language accompanying it — accelerated volatility across currencies, rates, and commodities, and reinforced the shifting environment we have been tracking for weeks.
Price action across global markets now reflects this shift more clearly than any commentary.
MARKET ENVIRONMENT: STRUCTURAL VOLATILITY AND REPRICING
Equity markets expanded their intraday and weekly ranges, with the S&P 500 maintaining realized volatility above its 80th percentile. Leadership within the NASDAQ weakened, as the relative strength of major technology names eroded under rate uncertainty and changing macro expectations.
Treasury markets continued their adjustment. The 10-year yield experienced one of its largest three-day moves since 2023, while the long bond showed volatility comparable to the extremes of 2022. The market remains torn between the competing narratives of persistent inflation and weakening economic growth.
Commodity markets displayed renewed conviction. Precious metals and industrial metals strengthened materially, supported by shifting macro flows, technical breakouts, and relative demand. Crude oil experienced a multi-month low before recovering into the week’s close.
Crypto markets deteriorated further. Bitcoin completed a death cross — a 50-day EMA crossing below the 200-day EMA — on both spot and futures markets. Historically, each Bitcoin death cross (2014, 2018, mid-2021, 2022) preceded extended weakness and, in several cases, multi-month drawdowns exceeding 40–60%. Structural deterioration is evident, and Nehemiah remains absent from the crypto complex by design.
Economic data provided no relief. Inflation remains sticky, consumer sentiment softened, and manufacturing indicators contracted across multiple regions. Markets are no longer pricing smooth normalization — they are recalibrating for an uneven macro path.
NEHEMIAH FUND POSITIONING: DISCIPLINE IN A SHIFTING LANDSCAPE
Nehemiah’s system registered its most significant cluster of trend confirmations in months. These signals emerged late last week and were reinforced this week following the Fed’s actions and the broadening of structural trends across key markets.
Precious and Industrial Metals: Silver offered the earliest and strongest breakout. Momentum strengthened, structure aligned across multiple timeframes, and volatility expanded in a trend-supportive manner. Based on this clarity, Nehemiah is now fully scaled into its silver position — reaching maximum system-permitted allocation. Gold followed silver with a confirmed breakout, supported by rising momentum and stabilizing volatility. Copper completed the metals alignment by breaking through its consolidation pattern and asserting a clear upward trend. These positions — silver, gold, and copper — demonstrate a cohesive strength across both precious and industrial metals.
The Dollar Correlation and Metals Context: Historically, precious metals exhibit a strong inverse correlation to the U.S. dollar, particularly during periods of monetary easing. In 2012, as the dollar weakened materially, both gold and silver staged significant rallies — gold gained more than 10% that year, driven by currency devaluation concerns, global uncertainty, and increased demand for non-fiat stores of value. The parallels to today’s environment are notable: a rate cut, uncertain forward guidance, and pressure on the dollar often create the conditions that accelerate precious-metals trends. The Fund’s full exposure to silver and committed positions in gold and copper align directly with these historical dynamics.
Energy and Agriculture: Natural Gas continues to exhibit one of the strongest and most durable upward trends in the global futures landscape, and Nehemiah maintains its long position. Corn triggered a structural breakout late last week and remains a confirmed long within the portfolio.
Currencies: The currency complex transitioned sharply. Both the British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR) moved into defined uptrends supported by clear structure and rising momentum. Nehemiah initiated long exposure in both markets and added a second scale-in to (GBP) & (EUR) following a confirming signal.
Markets Without Structure: Equities, interest-rate futures, soft commodities, and cryptocurrencies continue to lack coherent trend structures. Volatility remains elevated, but directionality remains unstable. Nehemiah maintains zero exposure to these markets until structural alignment appears.
LOOKING AHEAD: OPPORTUNITY THROUGH DISCIPLINE
The combination of a Fed policy shift, rising volatility, macro uncertainty, and emerging trend clarity across metals, select currencies, energy, and agriculture represents an environment where systematic trend following historically thrives. These are conditions in which discretionary frameworks often struggle — reacting to headlines rather than responding to structure.
Whether this environment evolves into a multi-quarter trend cycle remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Nehemiah is aligned with the strongest structural evidence available today and remains ready to expand or contract exposure as price dictates.
Discipline, not prediction, will determine who benefits from this transition.
DID YOU KNOW?
On December 10, 1914, after nearly five months of closure prompted by the outbreak of World War I, the New York Stock Exchange reopened. The reopening sparked an immediate surge in equities — a reminder that markets, once freed from constraint and uncertainty, can reprice with extraordinary speed.
A question worth considering: If markets can shift that dramatically after months of silence, how quickly might they move today — in an environment defined by volatility, policy change, and emerging structural trends?
Onward,
Brian J. Visconti
Nehemiah Fund Team